Thursday, January 7, 2010

December Vancouver Real Estate Sales the Metaphorical Cherry

After the Lower Mainland real estate market plummeted desperately at the end of 2008, this December caps an impressive third quarter rebound in 2009. The second half of 2009 was in stark contrast to the shocking lows seen in a real estate market that hadn't suffered so much since the early 1980s. At the moment, sales continue to increase and prices are nearly back to their peak.

Obviously, one of the biggest factors in the resurrection of Vancouver's real estate market has to be low mortgage rates. Lower housing prices tempted new buyers but it was the banks' decision to slash interest rates that really motivated buyers. Improved sales are expected to continue until mid-2010 when mortgage rates should rise.

Most experts also predict that prices will continue to increase which makes some weary that these improvements will continue. Higher prices and mortgage rates will likely have a negative impact on sales but nothing like what was seen at the end of 2008. Still, Greater Vancouver recorded more than 35,000 sales in 2009 which was a drastic 45 per cent improvement over 2008.

In fact, each month of the second half of 2009 saw record or near record sales and this December was the 3rd busiest on record. Yet somewhat surprisingly, real estate prices did not rise consistently across communities. The west side of Vancouver has reached a benchmark average of $1.5 million which is 30 per cent more than a year ago. Meanwhile, the Fraser Valley saw much more moderate improvements. Sales were up 26 percent to nearly 17,000 recorded while the benchmark has risen a mere 7.3 per cent to $430,827.

Nevertheless, most markets have gone from some of the worst sales figures in January to some of the best sales figures in December of the same year. In January, Vancouver recorded only 762 sales while the Fraser Valley 389. Compare that to the regions' best months which saw 4.528 sales and 2,089 sales respectively and you start to get a sense of how drastic the real estate rebound has been. For interest sake, Vancouver sales figures in December were 2,515 and the Fraser Valley were 1,260.

Moreover, various regional differences in the Fraser Valley market have also been noticed. White Rock, Surrey and Langley for example fared much better than Abbotsford or Mission. The closer properties are to Vancouver the more desirable they seem to be making Vancouver and the Lower Mainland the hottest regions on the market.

Inventories of unsold homes also continue to shrink, especially in the Lower Mainland as improved sales are eating away at the current inventory. In fact, there has been a 41 per cent drop in unsold homes from December 2008 to December 2009. In other words, 1 year ago there was a 10 month supply of homes listed while today there is only a 3 month supply.

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